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Should you Buy Qantas Shares?

Richard Hemming


Should you buy Qantas (QAN) shares? The world's airlines have been struck hard by the global pandemic of COVID-19. Australia's flagship carrier, Qantas, has scaled back its operations to a fraction of standard capacity. 

What has happened to Qantas shares?

To determine whether you should buy Qantas shares we need to look at the what has happened to Qantas shares. Under the Radar Report's recent stock report noted that Qantas share related news has come like a torrent over the last few weeks. The April dividend of Qantas shares has been postponed until September, which we don't think will be paid at all. The airline has also laid off up to 20,000 staff, raised $1bn in debt, secured against its wholly-owned aircraft fleet, cut executive wages, and might not pay rent to Australian airports. 


Qantas is at the pointy end of the corporate challenge in balancing obligations to the community with duties to shareholders. Qantas will lose $250m-plus a month as long as the COVID-19 pandemic carries on. As measures to limit the effects of the pandemic recede, demand for the airline’s services will not simply bounce back to where they were prior to the crisis. With all this said it's not difficult to see why investors are asking whether they should be buying Qantas shares. 


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The future of airlines

To keep customers happy, airlines may have to keep capacity ahead of demand. This may involve leaving middle seats empty, virus tests, building into their services and schedules operating protocols that could easily double the cost per seat in the medium term. Sharply higher ticket prices will help limit demand, since travellers will not have recovered from recent financial shocks.

The future of Qantas

Under the Radar Report will revisit Qantas once Virgin Australia's (VAH) fate becomes clearer. This will help investors understand the future of Qantas and whether to buy Qantas shares. The majority of Qantas profits have been earned domestically, and the market structure and competitive environment will be critical for medium-term returns. Such uncertainty is reflected in Qantas's share price which, after a period of sustained increases to over $7, plummeted to just over $2 and has bounced back to $4. We’re covering the Qantas share price closely as its part of our Blue Chip Value Portfolio. Expect to read more about Qantas and our thoughts in our Blue Chip Value Report.

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About the Author

Richard Hemming

Richard Hemming (r.hemming@undertheradarreport.com.au) is an independent analyst who edits www.undertheradarreport.com.au, which provides investment opportunities in Small Caps that you won’t get anywhere else.

Under the Radar Report is licensed to give general financial advice only (AFSL: 409518). The author does not own shares in any of the stocks mentioned.

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